Where are we now, and what do we do next?
Rupert Read
Nov 24, 2025
COP30 has now come to a close in Belém. Like many of you, I have been waiting to see whether this summit would rise to the moment.
The outcome, in my view, is mixed. Some elements are genuinely encouraging; others fall far short of what this decisive moment requires.
Over the past few years, my confidence in the COP process has waned.
In my recent appearance on the New Scientist COP30 special podcast, I spoke about how the world needs profoundly different forms of international cooperation if we are to respond meaningfully to the climate emergency.
That conversation seems even more pressing now.
I have also set out these ideas more fully in a new piece for Resilience.org, “Adaptation isn’t backing down… it’s stepping up”, which explores why reframing climate politics around adaptation is becoming unavoidable – and why it may offer our best route to renewed seriousness on prevention too.
My reaction to the COP30 deal
The deal agreed at COP30 is, in some ways, genuinely good, and in other ways, frankly, pathetic.
It is good that a significantly higher sum has been pledged for climate adaptation finance for the global South.
But it is pretty pathetic that this is not new money at all, simply redirected from existing commitments.
It is good that the agreement finally names the need to phase out fossil fuels. But it is pretty pathetic that it has taken thirty years just to state openly the source of climate breakdown, and even more pathetic that the phase-out is voluntary rather than binding in international law.
Why does progress at COPs remain so glacial?
Because these summits require almost every country on Earth to agree. This gives petro-states like Saudi Arabia and Russia a permanent veto.
The result is lowest-common-denominator deals that neither match the science nor protect the vulnerable.
What needs to happen is now clear: the nations that are serious about climate reality must stop waiting for the petro-states.
The 90-plus countries that pushed for a stronger deal should form a genuine climate club and make the agreement that the world actually needs. They should be prepared to apply economic and moral pressure on governments that continue to obstruct progress.
The COP system has achieved important things in its time. But I believe it is now evident that its time has passed.
A brief reflection
Some of you will remember that at COP26 in Glasgow I warned that the summit might be remembered as the one that effectively killed 1.5°C.
At COP27, I wrote that another failure was looming unless the world shifted to honesty about impacts.
That foresight feels sadly confirmed. But the work continues, and new paths remain open to us.
Listen and read
New Scientist podcast COP30 special, featuring my contribution
Resilience.org article: Adaptation isn’t backing down… it’s stepping up
Past reflections for context: COP26 press conference, COP27 analysis
Finally
Thank you, as always, for reading and for your support.
At moments like this, telling the truth about where we really are is essential.
I will keep doing that.