Labour’s manifesto rightly disappointed many climate advocates, on balance, but risk-averse Starmer has a clear route back to leadership on climate – as impacts escalate, only national adaptation will maintain a majority.
By Liam Kavanagh and Rupert Read
The UK has for three months now had a new Labour Government that has been content to win slowly on climate – which to climate concerned voters is the same as losing. But hope for the new administration can be built on the same reality that concerns us: if Labour is to achieve its political ambitions it must earn the name “leader” on the climate more-than-issue…
Assuming that it aspires to a reign as long as the ousted Conservatives, Keir Starmer’s Labour can be sure of one thing: its time in office will unavoidably be historic. The next 10 plus years will be the most unstable in Starmer’s lifetime to date due to worsening stability in both climate and international affairs. To lead effectively through this period Labour will need to quickly distance itself from the outgoing government’s neglectful approach to environmental security threats. It can do this by enacting policies that will build its own voting base, ensuring its longevity and a reputation for vision and leadership. For example a national adaptation campaign and climate education that helps young people protect their future.
The outgoing government may have pressaged the future a few months ago when it advised all Britons to prepare a 3 day kit that would allow them to survive an emergency. Among the reasons cited are rising risks of floods, other natural disasters, and power outages. The announcement mirrored Rishi Sunak’s campaign rhetoric on the “darkest of days”. We will hear more conservative rhetoric during increasingly uncertain times that appeals to worries about conserving what we have. Conspicuously missing from Sunak’s messaging appeal, though, was any connection between most of the cited risks and dangerous man-made climate change, which is a root cause that Sunak treated as a non-issue.
Starmer has an opportunity to highlight just how little the Conservatives have done to prepare for rising risks, an opportunity to refuse the inheritance of 50 years of climate procrastination forcefully. Any party seeking to establish itself as a ‘safe pair of hands’ must do this. It is no good being ‘risk averse’ about risks to one’s Party getting into power, as Labour was, if one badly fails to be risk averse – genuinely precautious, genuinely prepared – on behalf of citizens once in power. Taking a cue from the infamous Treasury note of 2010, the new Labour Government should asap highlight the chaos they’ve inherited, from flood risks to food insecurity, and refuse to become complicit in further endangering the nation.
Labour must choose what they’ll be remembered for. Prescience, and ‘Presilience’ in the face of what’s coming? Or short-term, reactive politics that leaves Britain exposed to spiralling climate damage, and the systemic and economic ruin that follows?
Advocates disheartened by the shallowness of explicit climate measures in the Labour manifesto, especially on adaptation, must now shift attention to promises of wealth creation that can only be kept by purposefully protecting our homes, businesses and livelihoods amid climate breakdown. Starmer’s Labour cannot be totally unaware of the current catastrophic state of climate risk (to which their stripped-down mitigation offer will make little difference) and its entanglement within a deteriorating global order. Even in mainstream news, the climate story has undergone a striking shift, with scientists now openly predicting breach of the 1.5°C climate goal sooner than expected, and reporting the approach of tipping points beyond which extreme weather will make life unrecognisable even in the (currently) temperate UK. Millions of homes are becoming uninsurable, and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC) is expected to start collapsing in 2055 if not much earlier, dropping European temperatures by up to 10°C in the lifetimes of today’s young voters. With the writing so blatantly on the wall, few aspiring leaderships have ever had so clear an opportunity to skate to where the puck is going – and win the trust of an anxious electorate by demonstrating genuine foresight and leadership.
Impacts beyond 1.5°C are coming. Failure to prepare is failure to lead.
Despite a robust polling lead, risk-aversion came to define Labour’s path to power. However, in a country balanced atop a house of cards, frantically palliating stressed and fragile systems, from water to food, security, health and trade, the most cautious platform must now prioritise national adaptation to actual climate risk. In the coming decade, the best investment that any party can make to serve the public good and court long-term majority appeal is to prioritise a serious program of resilience for communities, infrastructure, education, business and more. A party seeking to establish itself as a ‘safe pair of hands’ must be genuinely precautious, genuinely prepared – on behalf of citizens, once firmly in power. In short, serious vision and national self-protection are now inseparable. And while some advocates read in adaptation a betrayal or abandonment of global mitigation approaches, in fact it’s likely that manifest urgency to prepare and adapt locally is what finally creates a mandate for emissions reduction globally, by accelerating acceptance of climate reality.
A majority of people already cares about climate. And as now-unavoidable impacts hit home, mainstream public opinion will not stand still. Climate consciousness has exploded in the last five years, and within the next five to ten that trend can only deepen. Voters asking about inflation today will be asking tomorrow why their country wasn’t better protected from climate shocks – and a public still reeling from the chaos of COVID will not forgive another government caught off-guard. Lack of vision left the UK on the back foot in 2019, and coming crises will be more severe in ways we haven’t yet learned to imagine.
Few politicians have built a record they can be proud of when, soon, these disasters happen. Their victims will ask why Britain didn’t prepare better. Politicians who accept and respond to reality now will face challenges now, but be the trusted leaders of the future.
Taking a cue from the infamous Treasury note of 2010, an incoming Labour Government should asap highlight the chaos they’ve inherited, from flood risks to food insecurity, and refuse to become complicit in further endangering the nation. On this honest basis they can begin to build trust and initiate real, responsible preparation.
A possible direction of travel has been indicated by the report on 10 year climate pathways for Wales created by Jane Davidson et al: https://www.bath.ac.uk/announcements/independent-expert-group-calls-for-urgent-climate-action-in-wales/ . Wales, under Labour, made some encouraging moves on climate. Might these be to some extent at least copied by Labour now at Westminster?
Leadership from a new Government is vital, but let’s be realistic: it won’t be enough to secure the policy changes we need – and certainly not quickly. To allow those to emerge, many minds also need to change. We require a revival of democracy and political culture around climate – to foster a deepening and maturing of the climate majority that is already forming. Some of this work is government’s responsibility: we need policy and public forums to deepen public engagement and sense-making, and build the consensus needed for serious action. Pragmatic steps that are feasible now, to facilitate more transformative policy in the future. But when it comes to shifting opinion, many citizen advocates are currently better placed than government to convince the public that Britain needs to adapt for a chaotic future. Scientists, insurers, doctors, and public servants are key examples. Young people are more able to influence their parents than any leader. And nobody has more power than businesspeople to advocate for proper regulation of the bad business practices that perpetuate climate risk. This community knows that zero-emissions economies and societies braced for impact will never be achieved bottom-up without transformational legislative support, and the growing number of courageous business voices challenging government to do more must be amplified.
The picture of climate leadership that emerges at this late hour is neither top-down nor bottom-up but all together. No amount of clarity and passion from one individual or party will shift the minds of millions – nor will organisations get climate action done without visionary legislation. At the Climate Majority Project, we help concerned citizens understand that they cannot remain bystanders in this world, because climate leadership won’t simply show up until we demonstrate some ourselves, inspiring politicians in turn to lead a transformative conversation. From now, it’s our job to help Labour grasp and act adequately on climate reality.
A shortened version of this blog was published by Green House Think Tank on September 21, 2024
