Across Britain, a quiet transformation is happening. It’s not the stereotype of survivalist preppers hoarding beans in bunkers. It’s middle-class professionals – scientists, sustainability experts, teachers, doctors, policy analysts and management consultants who have seen the data and come to a stark conclusion:
The systems we rely on for survival are far more fragile than they appear, are deeply flawed and contain within them dynamics that keep us locked in to a dangerous trajectory.
By Rob Harrison-Plastow, originally published by Linked In
Some are voicing this quite openly, joining local groups to affect change and learn how to adapt; others have gone as far as to be a part of Extinction Rebellion, Insulate Britain or Just Stop Oil but are no longer active, waiting for the next big thing to come around; whilst many, many more have read the same writing on the wall but stay completely silent.
It’s this group that intrigues me most because I think they are the key to tapping into the Early Majority (see image below). Those who joined a movement, blocked roads and have been calling things out are the Innovators and Early Adopters and they’ve been speaking to audiences as if everybody else was like them and they can’t understand why their message hasn’t gone mainstream.
A normal distribution graph with Innovators and Early Adopters skewed to the left, Early Majority and Late Majority as groups in the bulk of the middle of the bell curve, then Laggards skewed to the right.
Moore’s ‘Crossing The Chasm’ Distribution Chart – originally designed to explain how disruptive technologies go mainstream.
I’m arguing that that’s because they haven’t understood the mainstream on a deep enough level – they can’t put themselves in their shoes enough as they are too focused on their own painful view because, well it’s painful. Instead, they end up feeling like they’re pulling their hair out trying to encourage mainstream audiences to “wake up and take action”.
This article (and it is an article, not a research report) seeks to examine this.
Over the past 6 years I’ve been a part of and have studied many aspects of the environmental movement in the UK. I’ve been on the blocked bridges, in the strategy meetings, part of endless Signal groups and WhatsApp chats. We’ve conducted depth interviews, focus groups and ethnographies with different parts of the More In Common and Britain Talks Climate segmentation (which I love). I’ve been pretty obsessed with this work since 2009 when I started my Masters in Sustainable Development. What’s happening now is the most interesting development of all.
Tipping Point
It strikes me that we are now at a crucial tipping point where a large number of people have been activated to the dire state of things when it comes to our many crises and challenges but whose behaviours are not commensurate with their understanding.
And to be honest, I think this group is larger than we think (I’m very much looking forward to this group being sized by quantitative research scheduled by The Climate Majority Project) and that most of you on LinkedIn, may well be a part to some degree.
Like the Partner at the accountancy firm I spoke to who has an MPhys from Oxford, lives in suburbia and would never dare mention climate change or social collapse to his friends or family but who has read the IPCC reports (no mean feat as they run into 1000s of pages), secretly follows JSO on X and whose heart is breaking at the thought of the 3 degree warmer world the physics tells him is coming.
Or the Mum of 3 under 5s whose background in ecology means that she understands all too well what being in a state of ecological overshoot means for us as a species and for the planet. She’s read about what happened to the reindeer of St Paul’s Island who multiplied their numbers far beyond the carrying capacity of the small island they’d been introduced to until they grazed it clear and their population shrank almost as quickly as it had grown.
Or the Project Manager at one of the largest consultancy firms who’s seen all the Guardian headlines, the missed opportunities at countless COPs (now presided over by oil and gas company CEOs), whose home flooded last year, whose skin burned in 40C heat in the UK summer the year before that and who knows exactly why actuaries and insurers will soon no longer be able to cover the mounting risks.
Cultural shift
Since 2019 we’ve seen a significant shift in the UK around perspectives on climate change.
As if out of nowhere, Extinction Rebellion moved the Overton window on climate action, leaving a huge gulf between them and the established, now more conservative looking NGOs and charities who had once seemed so radical. As factions within XR sought to push ever harder, to be more radical and extreme, the gulf widened even more until Insulate Britain and Just Stop Oil emerged and polarised debate, leading to popular ridicule, fear of association as well as admiration for their courage, if not for their empathy.
Their radical nature further polarised debate and what we are now left with, as my friend Rupert Read has so eloquently noted, is a silent climate majority.
A huge number of people that are neither radical nor in denial, who understand the monumental nature of our predicament, would never see themselves as activists, all the while despairing at the lack of collective progress and what they see as an inevitable collapse of the ecological foundations upon which all else rests.
If, as Rupert and the Climate Majority Project suggest, there really are millions of people in silent despair or a kind of ‘soft’ denial in order to simply keep going and live their lives amidst a media landscape ripe with misinformation, disinformation and outright denial, then a cultural shift would be entirely possible, if this group of what Geoffrey Moore might call the ‘Early Majority’, were to believe it were possible.
And I emphasise the believe part, as you will see below, beliefs are of huge importance in behavior change as they are the blueprints and models of our realities that unconsciously shape our worlds.
For those like the Climate Majority Project and This Is Agency that want to see such a change, in order to work out what to do, first they have to understand why things are as they are.
Which is what we’ve been helping them to find out.
And for our target audience of Middle-Class silent despairers means (see Established Liberals, under 50) finding out why aren’t people who are collapse aware doing more to prevent it? Why can they have an oat latte in one hand and secretly be following JSO on their phone in the other, terrified that someone might think they’re an activist?
What’s the ‘Why’ behind the ‘What’?
The ‘irrational’ behavior (i.e. scared of social and ecological collapse but staying silent about it) that we are trying to explain is not as simple as a flight response or paralysis, it is something far more nuanced.
This is not a binary split between those who act and those who do nothing. Nor are we concerning ourselves here with outright deniers.
Instead, there is a spectrum of engagement, where individuals exist in varying stages of awareness while continuing to participate in a system that they intellectually understand is unsustainable and self-destructive AND is also essential to their livelihoods and immediate wellbeing.
This tension is not irrational or illogical. Nor is it a ‘knowledge-action gap’. It’s not about what this audience needs to know, it’s about how they feel because this tension is a logical emotional response to the complexity of our world.
Those who appreciate this tension often exist within two conflicting realities:
They intellectually grasp that our system will eventually collapse (some say it is already collapsing) because either we continue our growth based economy and destroy our life-support systems, or we halt growth and our economic structures collapse in on themselves.
Or a mixture of the two as energy becomes harder to harness at the scales our systems are used to.
At the same time, they are living comfortably within the system as it exists today and they are still able to enjoy the benefits of affluence, stability and consumer comforts.
Based on the qualitative research we conducted at Source Nine in partnership with This Is Agency, The Climate Majority Project as well as past studies with activists from Extinction Rebellion, Insulate Britain and Just Stop Oil, this articles sets out 8 answers as to why there is less action from such a well informed group, which we hope will help the silently collapse-aware and those looking to support them, to widen the discourse and invite them into spaces in which they feel more emotionally safe to speak their minds.
When we can come to understand how others see the world and how that makes them feel, their behaviours become obvious and intuitive.
This isn’t about needing more information. It’s about needing more emotional safety to act.
Knowing what people in this audience are needing at a deep level means that we can better understand them and communicate with them – we all want to feel seen, heard and understood and when people make us feel that way, it’s easier to connect and collaborate because we feel safe to do so.
It’s in that spirit that this article is offered. We hope it helps the many wonderful strategists and creatives out there to tell stories that speak more directly to what this audience is needing, in order to help them to change their worlds for the better.
So, the 8 answers to why so many, who know so much, stay so silent are…
1. They’re desperate to speak their truth but can’t
They’re needing to be able to express their true views without fear of ridicule or alienation. They’re needing to reconcile their internal knowledge with their external behavior. They’re needing to feel aligned between their beliefs and their actions.
Beliefs Creating Their Need For Greater Honesty & Authenticity:
“I know what is coming but I can’t openly say everything I believe”.
“If I express my full views, I will be socially and professionally penalised”.
“I have to filter my thoughts to fit into a society that still believes in business as usual”.
“I feel like I am pretending when I participate in mainstream life”.
Why They Feel They Can’t Speak Their Truth:
They frequently self-censor to avoid being perceived as alarmist or extreme.
They feel forced to maintain a double consciousness with one foot in the world of collapse awareness, the other in modern society.
The tension between knowing the truth and acting “normal” creates an internal struggle
Resulting Behaviors:
Carefully curating how much they reveal about their awareness in different social settings.
Using humor or indirect language to test how open others are to these ideas.
Staying quiet
2. They feel alone
In order to act, they need to feel that they are not alone in their awareness. They need social validation for their concerns.
The beliefs that create their loneliness:
“Most people around me are still living as if everything is normal”.
“If I start talking about climate change too much, people will think I’m paranoid”.
“I suspect that others feel the same way but we are all afraid to say it openly”.
Why They Feel Lonely:
Their perception of risk is not widely shared or openly acknowledged in mainstream media.
They experience dissonance between what they read in climate science and how people around them behave and how media represent key themes in society.
This leads to a social hesitancy as they are cautious about who they reveal their concerns to.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Some find small, trusted circles where collapse discourse is validated.
Others remain socially cautious, waiting for more mainstream acceptance before speaking openly.
They oscillate between feeling deeply connected to reality and deeply alienated from social norms.
News feeds full of doom, social and work life conversations that make very little (or no) mention of it
3. They feel alienated and fear judgment
They’re needing to feel respected and validated for their knowledge and foresight. They’re needing to believe that their perspective is not irrational or extreme. They’re needing to feel competent in navigating an uncertain future.
Beliefs Creating Their Sense of Alienation and Judgment:
“I have researched and thought deeply about these topics but society does not take my concerns seriously.”.
“People mock or dismiss people who sound like me as ‘paranoid’, ‘extremists’ or ‘doomists’.
“I feel more competent in assessing risk than most but I am treated as if I’m overreacting or crazy”.
“When collapse happens, people will realise I was right but that won’t help me today”.
Why They Perceive Esteem as Unmet:
Their knowledge is accurate but their social and professional environments do not validate it.
The mainstream climate narrative still focuses on optimism and solutions, whereas they see irreversible systemic change.
The stigma around climate and/or collapse awareness makes them feel undervalued and misrepresented.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Seeking communities where their knowledge is respected, rather than mainstream validation.
Holding back their views in social and professional settings, waiting for public opinion to catch up.
4. They’re longing for a sense of meaning and purpose
They need to feel (and therefore believe) that their actions matter before they can act. They need to reconcile their current lifestyle with their knowledge of the potential for collapse and at present, this discourse is under-developed as too few people in their social groups are talking about it, including them (this is the painful irony of pluralistic ignorance).
The Beliefs Creating Their Lack of Meaning:
“The world I expected to live in is disappearing”.
“I want to be able to tell my children I did something but what can I do?”.
“I can’t stop what’s happening, so what’s the point in trying?”.
Why They Feel Their Actions Might Be Pointless:
Society still operates on business-as-usual narratives, making alternative approaches feel invisible or undervalued.
They struggle to find a sense of purpose that bridges the world they live in today with the world they know is coming.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Or they seek work and projects that feel meaningful, even if they are still embedded in mainstream systems.
They engage in low risk acts at a slow pace, ensuring they still function within modern society (domestic focus, conspicuous consumption, EVs, energy efficiency etc)
5. They feel powerless
They’re needing to feel they have some control over their future. They’re needing to act in a way that feels productive and not performative. They’re needing to avoid falling into despair.
The Beliefs Creating Their Powerlessness:
“We cannot stop climate change”
“I cannot change the system”
“I don’t know exactly when or how things will unfold”
“The vested interests and powers that be are too great”
“It’s just too huge and complex a problem, there’s nothing I can do”
Why They Feel Powerless:
Mitigation (stopping climate change) feels futile
However, they still feel constrained by their current reliance on the system they intellectually reject, so they feel trapped
They fear overreacting too soon but also fear underreacting until it’s too late.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Some make small, low-risk adjustments such as home energy efficiency, diversifying income streams, growing food.
Others wait until collapse becomes more visible before fully committing to adaptation.
They fluctuate between “normal life” and “anxious preparation thinking”, never fully abandoning either.
6. They don’t feel safe
They need to feel safe in an uncertain future, without disrupting the security they enjoy today, before they can act. Otherwise, they will continue not to act until that uncertainty is addressed – either by new narratives that believably make sense of the present and future (a battle for hearts and minds that is currently playing out here in the West) or by the immediate certainty of devastating climate impacts.
They’re needing to balance preparation for future instability with their current participation in a stable system and for as long as they perceive things as stable, they won’t act.
Why They Perceive Security as Unmet (Even When They Are Currently Secure):
The long-term trajectory of collapse is visible but the daily experience of comfort creates a tension between what they know and how they live.
They do not yet feel an immediate threat, which makes fully committing to adaptation feel premature, even though they intellectually acknowledge its necessity.
They want to act but they fear disrupting their current stability too soon.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Some start planning small, precautionary changes, buying land, stockpiling food, installing solar panels.
Others remain in a state of contemplation knowing they will eventually need to act but unsure when the tipping point will come.
They oscillate between awareness and normalcy, thinking about collapse one moment and business as usual the next.
7. They are deeply confused
They’re needing to make sense of the many and complex contradictions in modern life. They’re needing to understand how systemic collapse could unfold. They’re needing intellectual frameworks to explain why action still feels distant.
Beliefs Leading to Their Confusion:
“Why isn’t society acting like this is real?”
“Have I definitely read the science right? It’s catastrophic but every one carries on as normal. Is it me?”
“How do we function within a system that is failing but still operating?”
“Why do people resist acknowledging what is happening, even when the evidence is overwhelming?”
“How do I personally navigate the uncertainty of the coming decades?”
Why They Feel Confused:
Mainstream society is not behaving in a way that they can rationally understand in response to climate and economic threats, this makes collapse-aware individuals question their own perceptions.
Mainstream discourse contradicts what they see happening, creating cognitive dissonance.
They are looking for more clarity on how, when, and in what ways collapse will manifest.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Consuming content to help explain what’s going on (often leading to doom-scrolling as algorithms serve up more of the same, further creating cognitive dissonance)
8. They’re scared, full of grief and totally overwhelmed
They’re needing to find moments of stillness in a chaotic world. They’re needing to balance their collapse awareness with the enjoyment of life. They’re needing to connect to the beauty of the natural world to counterbalance their grief and despair from losing it.
The Beliefs Creating Their Need For Peace:
“If collapse is inevitable, how do I still find joy in the present?”
“The world is unraveling but I still want to enjoy things while they last.”
“How do I hold the weight of this without becoming overwhelmed?”
“How do I maintain my mental health while living with this knowledge?”
Why They Feel Anxious:
Constantly engaging with climate discourse is emotionally exhausting, they need more breaks from crisis thinking but their anxiety keeps them trying to work it all out until they burn out or switch off, falling back into ‘soft’ denial
The scale of the crisis is overwhelming and they struggle to stay grounded in the present moment.
They feel guilty for enjoying life, knowing that others are suffering and that worse is coming.
Resulting Behaviors:
Staying quiet
Adopting a ‘soft denial’ position and choosing to look away in order to ‘just get through the day’ or ‘live my life’
Conclusion: Understanding the Paradox of Collapse Awareness & Modern Comfort
This multi-layered emotional landscape explains why well-off, middle-class Britons can be collapse-aware yet still hesitant to act, enjoying modern life while knowing it is unsustainable.
This group is not frozen in inaction but rather moving at different speeds on a spectrum of adaptation.
Their awareness of risks coexists with their ability to still enjoy the comforts of modern life.
They are navigating the tension between preparing for potential collapse and continuing to function within the system they intellectually distrust.
As collapse becomes more visible and socially accepted, their transition to active adaptation will accelerate.
Right now, they exist in two worlds at once. But as the world changes, so will they.
This group of people are not acting irrationally, they’re stuck in The Survival Paradox
The Survival Paradox
This paradox sees people getting trapped between an existential fear of other people’s opinions in the present and an existential fear about the future.
As social creatures, we seek safety and security in being part of a tribe. For millennia, exclusion from the tribe for a social primate was a near-death sentence. Our abilities to read each other’s cues and to seek to be accepted have been naturally selected for to keep us alive. Our brains have evolved to heavily weight this kind of data to keep us alive.
Meanwhile, many people are also envisioning a future in which their children struggle for survival against a backdrop of floods, droughts, storms and worsening food security that ultimately leads to social collapse. This creates an unmet need for control and agency in a context of deep uncertainty, powerlessness and existential threat but is getting stymied by the immediacy of the social fear.
Social proof is therefore incredibly important for disruptive messages to gain traction. They need to see others doing it first, to see that it is safe for them to join in too. Without this, they are paralysed.
Throughout the interviews I couldn’t help but think to myself: “If only they knew that so many other people just like them are thinking and feeling the same way, they wouldn’t feel so trapped”.
For a breakdown of the Emotional Jobs To Be Done as well as an initial creative brief for how to action these insights, DM me for a copy of the This Is Agency report.
A crucial moment in time
The unmet needs explored above are palpable and as our context shifts, as things progress geo-politically and as the potential for more upheaval, uncertainty and unpredictability arises globally as a result, the perception of these needs being unmet is likely to increase. How they are addressed and who by, will be defining.
Which community, movement or political party it will be that will speak to these needs and offer ways out is yet to be decided. But given this much pain and frustration, it is highly understandable that a government, group or movement could either bring about the expression of that power in order to create change and emotional liberation, or take advantage of that pain as a means to give that power to themselves.
The above is therefore offered with the hope of helping to empower people, first by acknowledging this group and their experience and secondly as a playbook for narrative strategies to effectively engage with them through media in ways that speak to their needs and in doing so, make more action possible.
For a copy of the full This Is Agency Report, drop me a DM.
